Keep on to blur preview images; turn off to show them clearly
i'm also probably overestimating marginal launch cost — imagine reusability pushed it closer to $15m far sooner
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Obviously China wants the fishing rod, not the fish, but ASML+ controls are non-negotiable at this point (at least the US thinks so). I believe that they're not close to domestic chip production *at the scale they need to compete*, so Nvidia is – for now – a meaningful card.
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the “launch costs are dropping” narrative misses that prices haven’t. most dedicated F9s aren't full and gov pays more, so this under-estimates $/kg. customers pay for reliable access — all just margin until a real competitor reaches orbit. 7.8 km/s is a great moat!
i'm also probably overestimating marginal launch cost — imagine reusability pushed it closer to $15m far sooner
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