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Working on a new terminal: Ghostty. 👻 Prev: founded @HashiCorp. Created Vagrant, Terraform, Vault, and others. Vision Jet Pilot. 👨✈️


We're in a race. It's not USA vs China but humans and AGIs vs ape power centralization. @deepseek_ai stan #1, 2023–Deep Time «C’est la guerre.» ®1


Root node of the web of threads: https://t.co/ifH80GcLpo

![A problem with VCS today in an agentic world is they only store the [mostly] successful history. We should be storing the thousands of branches that were failures; the false starts that didn't solve the problem. The negatives are important and we are just throwing it all away. A problem with VCS today in an agentic world is they only store the [mostly] successful history. We should be storing the thousands of branches that were failures; the false starts that didn't solve the problem. The negatives are important and we are just throwing it all away.](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fprofile_images%2F1141762999838842880%2F64_Y4_XB_400x400.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Working on a new terminal: Ghostty. 👻 Prev: founded @HashiCorp. Created Vagrant, Terraform, Vault, and others. Vision Jet Pilot. 👨✈️

![I hope we all get the "China is a puppy" trope out out our systems soon enough. They are not. Kicking a dragon is different. Hawks would benefit *more* from realizing this than Sinophiles.
No you CAN'T just brain-drain their talent with some visa tinkering. Enough malarkey. You've been doing that for like a century, it wasn't enough and it's working worse over time as your societies become less relatively attractive.
No you CAN'T blockade Malacca and have them run out of food/energy. They have stockpiles, they're not really food-insecure and are increasingly independent of overseas energy imports, your navy is not invulnerable, the region is not your playground.
No you CAN'T kick them off SWIFT and see their trade collapse. Too much of the world depends on that trade, you'll delegitimize SWIFT and possibly USD as such.
No you CAN'T bomb Three Gorges Damn and drown 200/300/400M people, for all the "it hungers" meme. You'd need a nuke, they have AA and distributed anti-flooding systems and probably won't even drown at anywhere near this scale, but you WILL get nuked in retaliation.
No you can't issue "letters of marque" and destroy their fishing fleet via privateers. Within a month it'll be militarized and privateering will become costlier than ecological damage.
No you CAN'T deny them compute or lithography, they are making their own chips, have EUV prototype and WILL build their own supply chain.
And so on and so forth. There is no gotcha, no cheat code, no Achilles heel to exploit with impunity. It's a 1.4B strong, unified, live actor civilization-state with peer technology. You can't JUST anything, anything at all, that can topple this kind of a system. Historically, they live and die from their own intrinsic dynamics. Their dynamics suggests plenty of runway left.
You can negotiate for your rights. You can safeguard some advantages. You can engender some dampening effects with effort and coherent execution. Maybe some Wunderwaffes are not yet implemented but theoretically possible — at this point, I'd say it's only ASI, weaponizing Starship for FOBS/interception, ethnically targeted weapon, or [REDACTED]. But you'd be solving very hard problems and racing against time, as they are working to deny you any high-leverage course of action. On the margins, it's a choice between focusing on that or solving your own internal dysfunction, which if left unchecked will cost you dearly in a world where both systems survive and compete.
You do not have the qualifications to even think that there is an option to kick or not kick a puppy. There are no puppies left. I hope we all get the "China is a puppy" trope out out our systems soon enough. They are not. Kicking a dragon is different. Hawks would benefit *more* from realizing this than Sinophiles.
No you CAN'T just brain-drain their talent with some visa tinkering. Enough malarkey. You've been doing that for like a century, it wasn't enough and it's working worse over time as your societies become less relatively attractive.
No you CAN'T blockade Malacca and have them run out of food/energy. They have stockpiles, they're not really food-insecure and are increasingly independent of overseas energy imports, your navy is not invulnerable, the region is not your playground.
No you CAN'T kick them off SWIFT and see their trade collapse. Too much of the world depends on that trade, you'll delegitimize SWIFT and possibly USD as such.
No you CAN'T bomb Three Gorges Damn and drown 200/300/400M people, for all the "it hungers" meme. You'd need a nuke, they have AA and distributed anti-flooding systems and probably won't even drown at anywhere near this scale, but you WILL get nuked in retaliation.
No you can't issue "letters of marque" and destroy their fishing fleet via privateers. Within a month it'll be militarized and privateering will become costlier than ecological damage.
No you CAN'T deny them compute or lithography, they are making their own chips, have EUV prototype and WILL build their own supply chain.
And so on and so forth. There is no gotcha, no cheat code, no Achilles heel to exploit with impunity. It's a 1.4B strong, unified, live actor civilization-state with peer technology. You can't JUST anything, anything at all, that can topple this kind of a system. Historically, they live and die from their own intrinsic dynamics. Their dynamics suggests plenty of runway left.
You can negotiate for your rights. You can safeguard some advantages. You can engender some dampening effects with effort and coherent execution. Maybe some Wunderwaffes are not yet implemented but theoretically possible — at this point, I'd say it's only ASI, weaponizing Starship for FOBS/interception, ethnically targeted weapon, or [REDACTED]. But you'd be solving very hard problems and racing against time, as they are working to deny you any high-leverage course of action. On the margins, it's a choice between focusing on that or solving your own internal dysfunction, which if left unchecked will cost you dearly in a world where both systems survive and compete.
You do not have the qualifications to even think that there is an option to kick or not kick a puppy. There are no puppies left.](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FG8uYyNcWwAA5JCk.png&w=3840&q=75)
We're in a race. It's not USA vs China but humans and AGIs vs ape power centralization. @deepseek_ai stan #1, 2023–Deep Time «C’est la guerre.» ®1


I build sane open-source RL tools. MIT PhD, creator of Neural MMO and founder of PufferAI. DM for business: non-LLM sim engineering, RL R&D, infra & support.
