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"Our analysis of historical and projected launch pricing data suggests that with a sustained learning rate, prices may fall to less than $200/kg by the mid-2030s. At that price point, the cost of launching and operating a space-based data center could become roughly comparable to the reported energy costs of an equivalent terrestrial data center on a per-kilowatt/year basis."

This is the key point. Orbital compute becomes inevitable once launch + orbital infra costs < terrestrial capex + time delay costs. The open question is whether SpaceX will pass its Starship cost savings to customers, and on what time frame. Without real competition, it doesn't need to be generous.

Hyperscalers may absorb the cost anyway in the race for time-to-power, buying out every available launch slot across other providers (Relativity, Rocket Lab, Stoke, Blue, etc.) Even then, total launch volume will remain lopsided toward SpaceX— it’s hard to compete with 100T+payloads to SSO. 

Either way, space might get very interesting!

"Our analysis of historical and projected launch pricing data suggests that with a sustained learning rate, prices may fall to less than $200/kg by the mid-2030s. At that price point, the cost of launching and operating a space-based data center could become roughly comparable to the reported energy costs of an equivalent terrestrial data center on a per-kilowatt/year basis." This is the key point. Orbital compute becomes inevitable once launch + orbital infra costs < terrestrial capex + time delay costs. The open question is whether SpaceX will pass its Starship cost savings to customers, and on what time frame. Without real competition, it doesn't need to be generous. Hyperscalers may absorb the cost anyway in the race for time-to-power, buying out every available launch slot across other providers (Relativity, Rocket Lab, Stoke, Blue, etc.) Even then, total launch volume will remain lopsided toward SpaceX— it’s hard to compete with 100T+payloads to SSO. Either way, space might get very interesting!

paper is an interesting read: https://t.co/5IMEwumJgz

avatar for Ryan McEntush
Ryan McEntush
Tue Nov 04 19:12:14
launched

launched

achieve ambition with intentionality, intensity, & integrity - @dxtipshq - @sveltesociety - @aidotengineer - @latentspacepod - @cognition + @smol_ai

avatar for swyx
swyx
Tue Nov 04 19:11:42
Finally got deepseek base to work

Finally got deepseek base to work

Cofounder and Head of Post Training @NousResearch, prev @StabilityAI Github: https://t.co/LZwHTUFwPq HuggingFace: https://t.co/sN2FFU8PVE

avatar for Teknium (e/λ)
Teknium (e/λ)
Tue Nov 04 19:10:50
RT @sundarpichai: Our TPUs are headed to space! 

Inspired by our history of moonshots, from quantum computing to autonomous driving, Proje…

RT @sundarpichai: Our TPUs are headed to space!  Inspired by our history of moonshots, from quantum computing to autonomous driving, Proje…

Co-founder @ndea. Co-founder @arcprize. Creator of Keras and ARC-AGI. Author of 'Deep Learning with Python'.

avatar for François Chollet
François Chollet
Tue Nov 04 19:09:53
I sooooo hope these amazing books, all of the Cosmere, isn’t destroyed by Hollywood like Star Wars, Marvel, The Witcher, LotR series or The Wheel of Time. 

Just one time PLEASE somebody stay faithful to the source material.

I sooooo hope these amazing books, all of the Cosmere, isn’t destroyed by Hollywood like Star Wars, Marvel, The Witcher, LotR series or The Wheel of Time. Just one time PLEASE somebody stay faithful to the source material.

Founder 📈 @parqetapp Host of 🎙 @minimalempires Prev. @stripe

avatar for Sumit Kumar
Sumit Kumar
Tue Nov 04 19:09:20
I sooooo hope these amazing books, all of the Cosmere, isn’t destroyed by Hollywood like Star Wars, Marvel, The Witcher, LotR series or The Wheel of Time. 

Just one time PLEASE somebody stay faithful to the source material.

I sooooo hope these amazing books, all of the Cosmere, isn’t destroyed by Hollywood like Star Wars, Marvel, The Witcher, LotR series or The Wheel of Time. Just one time PLEASE somebody stay faithful to the source material.

Founder 📈 @parqetapp Host of 🎙 @minimalempires Prev. @stripe

avatar for Sumit Kumar
Sumit Kumar
Tue Nov 04 19:09:20
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