Fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) are the mainstay of the Western way of life. Here are some facts to help remind us why these finite resources are virtually irreplaceable: 👇🏽 🧵
#1 - Fossil fuels provide 83% of the world's primary energy, a percentage that has barely changed in the last 25 years. In absolute terms, fossil fuel consumption has continued to grow over the past 170 years.
#2 - More than 95% of the energy used in the TRANSPORTATION of people and goods comes from fossil fuels: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, natural gas, propane... The first graph shows 2020 data by fuel in the US.
#3 - Industrial agriculture is completely dependent on fossil fuels: from the production of nitrogen fertilizers with natural gas, to the synthesis of pesticides, to the fuel used by tractors, harvesters, and agricultural machinery... 📸Y. Chiba
...plastics in greenhouses, netting, plastic mulch, transportation and logistics, and product packaging. Some authors have calculated that 7 to 10 calories of fossil fuels are required for every calorie of food produced and transported.
#4 - Steelmaking and metallurgy. STEEL is produced in blast furnaces using coke coal, and temperatures of up to 1600°C are required. Between 7 and 16% of the world's coal is used for steel production.
#5 - Although the trend is downward, almost 50% of new HEATING equipment installations still use fossil fuels (natural gas, heating oil, etc.) directly. And more indirectly.
#6 - Coal is used in more than 90% of global cement production to achieve the high calcination temperatures of blast furnaces. Alternative processes based on electrification are only in the research phase and at laboratory scale.
#7 - The vast majority of PLASTICS and polymers are produced from intermediate distillates of petroleum or natural gas: they are used in packaging, consumer products, synthetic fibers, industrial parts, construction parts, and a long etcetera. Graphic by @NatGeo
#8 - Most industrial organic chemicals originate from products derived from gas and petroleum. These are used in the manufacture of plastic paints, adhesives, cosmetics, solvents, lacquers, pharmaceuticals, detergents, dyes, and more.
...and let's not forget the other petroleum distillates used in the production of asphalt from bitumen, mineral oils, industrial lubricants, and synthetic waxes. Everything from a barrel of oil is used.
#9 - As with other sectors, modern MINING is highly dependent on fossil fuels. Heavy and light machinery is powered by diesel and fuel oil. Only 0.5% of the total is electrified.
#10 - Although in some countries like Spain the contribution of gas and coal to the ELECTRICITY mix remains at a *modest* 20%, globally, fossil fuels still represent more than 60% of electricity production.
Fishing, leisure, timber industry... We could go on. Fossil fuels are the material foundation on which capitalism rests. But we're past their peak production, so they're only going to become more expensive and difficult to obtain. 👇🏽 CONTINUE
This won't be fixed with more technology (which relies on fossil fuels) or more investment (which doesn't improve energy efficiency). Nuclear and renewable energy won't be able to completely replace fossil fuels either: they produce less than 10% of the world's energy, and that's in the form of electricity. 👇🏽
It's not just that the corresponding electricity generation needs to be replaced by fossil fuels, it's that we would have to electrify transport (air and sea!), industrial processes, blast furnaces, light and heavy machinery, rethink much of the industrial synthesis chemistry... 👇🏽
... For example, opting for green H2 would not be as easy as replacing gas stations with hydrogen stations; there would be engineering problems derived from the properties of H2: low efficiency, volatility (losses), chemical reactivity (e.g. with steel), risks of explosion, etc. 👇🏽
And let's not forget that all of this, without changing the growth model, would mean continuing to double the economy (i.e., primary energy, resources, pollution, etc.) every few years. Figure by Gail Tverberg
The only way out of this quagmire is to abandon infinite growth and rapidly DECREASE toward a more circular, local, resilient, and fair economy* that prioritizes a radical reduction in consumption. *The richest must/should decrease more.
