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Good writeup. The West uses plenty of methods and money to subsidize supply though. They just Have Worse Outcomes. Imo the main difference is that the CPC is teleological, while the USG is homeostatic. You need to cultivate tech trees, not just pass politically viable budgets.
re the original post. Chynese are too poor and low-productivity to compete with Mississippi. They just ain't got any money to spend, so it stands to reason that GDP is so low. Kimi with search gives a breakdown of annual spending of a typical student in Chongqing (urban pop. 22M).
I'm afraid these who believe AGI is very far away must probably be thinking in terms of "will LLMs scale to AGI?" rather than "is humanity closer to AGI?" Like they completely forget to account for upcoming breakthroughs, and they certainly don't think about how existing tools accelerate the pace of these breakthroughs. They see GPT-3, GPT-4, GPT-5, and picture in their heads: "will GPT-7 be AGI?". Then they realize that, no, it wouldn't, obviously. And they then project AGI as being many years away. If I'm not mistaken, it took Karpathy about 1 year to implement NanoGPT. Now, take a moment to imagine a model capable of passing this prompt: "write a working clone of GPT-2 in plain C, except with..." As soon as such a thing exists and is broadly available, LLMs will be nearing their end. We'll instantly enter a transition era between this thing and the next thing, because labs all around the world will be doing ultra fast research and experimentation, trying new systems, reasoning about the very nature of intelligence. And the result of that will be a truly general intelligence system. I honestly think this will catch many off guard, in particular these working on major AI labs, because they're getting comfortable with the LLM curve. They think the LLM curve is THE intelligence curve. But it isn't. The intelligence exponential was driven by step breakthroughs. It started with life, passed through bacteria, fish, dinosaurs, humans, fire, agriculture, writing, mathematics, the printing press, steam engines, electronics, computers, the internet, and now LLMs. Each thing accelerated progress towards the next thing. LLMs aren't the last thing, but they're the thing before the last. When I say "AGI around end of 2026" I'm not talking about GPT-7. I'm talking about XYZ-1, which will be implemented by a team with access to GPT-6...
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RT @cormachayden_: Your quality of life shifts the moment you realize: creating > consuming building > using acting > procrastination inve…
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Best investment of 20 min of your time. Please read this. @yishan has banger after bangers in this one: " American elite thinking tends to focus on "virtualized" things (like prices) while Chinese elites think more about "real atoms" (actual goods). Hence, viewing the prices of things as being too high leads to favoring virtualized solutions like helping with the price (give more virtualized money to bring down the virtualized price). Thinking about the amount of physical goods leads to thinking about how to make more of the physical good (build more factories)." Even if you may all that, he writes it with such great flourish that you must read it @teortaxesTex @zephyr_z9
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