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2/3 ...sees no promising candidates in France, Germany, or the UK. 3. What this means for Russia America views China as its greatest adversary. This has led to what I consider the biggest geopolitical mistake of the 21st century: the belief that Russia can be turned against China. Every U.S. administration has initially attempted a "reset" with Russia, mistakenly treating it as part of Western civilization. These efforts always failed—but only after much damage was done. The current American administration’s biggest fear is the collapse of the Russian regime. Preventing this is now a priority. Two years ago, I warned that America’s fear of Russia losing would soon outweigh its fear of Ukraine losing. That moment has arrived. In his first month in office, Trump ended Russia’s international isolation. Instead of treating it as an aggressor and terrorist state, he presented Russia as a powerful nation that deserves a seat at the table. Sanctions may soon be lifted. Imagine if, during World War II, the U.S. had sent envoys to meet with Hitler instead of supporting Britain, claiming Poland and France were to blame for their own invasion. That’s where we are now. 4. What this means for Ukraine First, U.S. support for Ukraine is over—regardless of who wins the next election. Some Ukrainians believe parts of the American administration “hate” Ukraine while others “love” it. That’s a childish view. The reality is that Ukraine is simply irrelevant to them. The U.S. now has two objectives: - Weaken Europe to make it defenseless. - Strengthen Russia to use it against China. Ukraine stands in the way of both goals—so it must be punished. A new metaphor gaining traction in Washington compares the war to the American Civil War. In this view, Ukraine is a rebellious southern province, and the victorious Union (Russia) will eventually impose order. Foreign powers (the U.S. and EU) should stay out of a “civil war.” 5. What should Ukraine do? - Stop hoping to "win over" the American administration. Ukraine is an obstacle to their plans, not a partner. There is nothing to offer them. - Accept that U.S. aid is ending. The full consequences will be painful, far beyond the loss of USAID. But there is no way to prevent this. - Turn to Europe. Europe cannot survive without Ukraine, and Ukraine cannot survive without Europe. They must stand together or fall together. - Seek allies beyond the U.S. and EU. Turkey is a key player. Other potential allies must be identified. Ukraine must prioritize survival over ideology. 6. Russia’s next move: political war Since Russia cannot defeat Ukraine militarily, it will try to do so politically. That’s why pushing Ukraine into elections before a secure peace deal is disastrous. The U.S. and Russia are now aligned in promoting the idea of "elections first, peace later"—because it's the cheapest way to destroy Ukraine. If Ukraine collapses, it will not just lose statehood—it will lose millions of lives. Russia will mobilize everyone and launch a new wave of imperial expansion—this time into an undefended Europe. Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize. He believes a ceasefire is enough to win it. But even if a peace deal is signed, and then broken, he will only blame Ukraine for rejecting his "greatest peace plan." 7. What must be done? - Acknowledge the crisis—Ukraine faces an existential threat. Political infighting must end, and leadership must unite the nation in survival. - Hold a strong, independent stance. Ukraine will not accept any terms that jeopardize its survival. - Improve governance and efficiency in every sector—military, economy, defense industry, and energy. - Mobilize allies while there is still time, with Europe as the priority... 2/3


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![Me: Ah a nice relaxing Monday where I can finally get some work done.
DOGE: Have you ever heard of checks?!
Me: %{*]% it. Me: Ah a nice relaxing Monday where I can finally get some work done.
DOGE: Have you ever heard of checks?!
Me: %{*]% it.](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fprofile_images%2F1346314816827232256%2FzCQCJW6N_400x400.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Me: I don’t do partisan politics. Twitter the Sumerian bird demon: Got it. Me: Which is why I work in a painfully boring infrastructural field. Twitter: Oh sure. Me: That no one hates each other over. Twitter: Yeah. Me: So just writing the truth won’t summon a mob. *curse starts*


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Prompt Engineer, dedicated to learning and disseminating knowledge about AI, software engineering, and engineering management.
