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Dylan may or may not have been secretly leaving little SemiAnalysis stickers throughout the datacenter.
Host of @dwarkeshpodcast https://t.co/3SXlu7fy6N https://t.co/4DPAxODFYi https://t.co/hQfIWdM1Un
Super pragmatic, Trump. One of the very redeeming qualities (when he is not shilling crypto or financing wars).
AI @amazon. All views personal!
Cursor’s office building The people working here are responsible for ~50% of the code I write nowadays 😅
🎨 https://t.co/zRs2zxDPaB 🔍 https://t.co/exjaUMAAeA 👶 https://t.co/9Q9EA2x6tm 🍞 https://t.co/7MFdp8GP0P 🧬 https://t.co/68beWMCzbe 🏖️ https://t.co/5j1CeM0ph6 🪄 https://t.co/V3qWvO1ivz 👾 https://t.co/igZAgKrQBa
So, MSTR is now trading at a discount to the NAV of its bitcoin holdings, after trading at a massive premium for the last couple of years. The problem is that Saylor is going to need to keep issuing more stock to shore up the balance sheet because of all that debt they’ve taken on. Before, every share sale was anti-dilutive and built up book value while raising liquidity. Now it’s the opposite, and every new share issued is dilutive and destroys book value. The discount is modest now at 1.7%, but all the forces that were helpful before are now working in the opposite direction, so it’s probable that the discount will expand before it contracts. Also, during its peak, MSTR was the only game in town if you wanted a liquid stock that was pursuing this levered bitcoin treasury strategy. But now there are a bunch of copycats competing for the same investors, and those other ones are still in their honeymoon phase of trading above NAV. What Saylor should really do is sell BTC to buy back stock and thereby increase the BTC per share, even if that results in a decrease in the aggregate BTC owned by MSTR. But doing so would likely spook the market (both the BTC market and the MSTR market), potentially erasing any benefit. Tough spot to be in.
Former Quant Investor, now building @lumera (formerly called Pastel Network) | My Open Source Projects: https://t.co/9qbOCDlaqM
RT @litcapital: It’s crazy to see that James Fishback, the guy who fraudulently posed as Greenlight Capital’s “Head of Macro” two years ago…
AI Optimist. Empiricist, not 'rationalist'. Anti world government.
focusing on having fun is an underappreciated fix for stage fright/performance anxiety (and many other situations)
Prev founder @remnote (GC backed) +benchflow (Jeff Dean backed), @zfellows, https://t.co/4BVc8PU2cD, @mercatus EV Fellow