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RT @ChrisPainterYup: It’s hard to imagine ad inventory that’s more unique than what Dwarkesh, Max, and team are selling.

RT @ChrisPainterYup: It’s hard to imagine ad inventory that’s more unique than what Dwarkesh, Max, and team are selling.

Host of @dwarkeshpodcast https://t.co/3SXlu7fy6N https://t.co/4DPAxODFYi https://t.co/hQfIWdM1Un

Mon Dec 22 07:00:35

Final Sarah Paine lecture: Why Russia lost the Cold War.

To me, the most interesting question is not why the Soviet Union ultimately collapsed - it's how a brutal, centrally planned, stupendously inefficient, colonial land empire survived for so long.

I was surprised to learn about the central role that oil played in sustaining (and eventually dissolving) the Soviet Union.

By the 1950s, the Soviet system was in a crisis. Soviet growth rates had started to slow significantly as compared to the booming West. USSR's heavy-industry based economy was energy-starved. The 1953 CIA-backed coup in Iran blocked Soviet access to Iranian oil.

But in 1959, they discovered massive oil fields in Siberia. And of course the 1973 oil crisis multiplied the value of those exports. From 1973-1985, energy exports accounted for a shocking 80% of the USSR's hard currency earnings, which they needed to buy all the things central planning couldn't produce effectively - from grain to advanced technology - and support the many million strong Red army occupying Eastern Europe.

And then oil prices plummeted (69% in just 8 months following 1985). USSR government deficit went from around 2% of GDP in 1985 to 20% in 1991.

Anyways, all this to say that the discovery of massive oil fields in Siberia might have kept a floundering and obviously unworkable Communist system on life support for an extra 30 years. This way the USSR collapsed in 1991, and not 1961.

0:00:00 – Did Reagan single-handedly win the Cold War?
0:15:53 – Eastern Bloc uprisings & oil crisis
0:30:37 – Gorbachev's mistakes
0:37:33 – German unification and NATO expansion
0:48:31 – The Gulf War and the Cold War endgame
0:56:10 – How central planning survived so long
1:14:46 – Sarah's life in the USSR in 1988

Available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc. Enjoy!

Final Sarah Paine lecture: Why Russia lost the Cold War. To me, the most interesting question is not why the Soviet Union ultimately collapsed - it's how a brutal, centrally planned, stupendously inefficient, colonial land empire survived for so long. I was surprised to learn about the central role that oil played in sustaining (and eventually dissolving) the Soviet Union. By the 1950s, the Soviet system was in a crisis. Soviet growth rates had started to slow significantly as compared to the booming West. USSR's heavy-industry based economy was energy-starved. The 1953 CIA-backed coup in Iran blocked Soviet access to Iranian oil. But in 1959, they discovered massive oil fields in Siberia. And of course the 1973 oil crisis multiplied the value of those exports. From 1973-1985, energy exports accounted for a shocking 80% of the USSR's hard currency earnings, which they needed to buy all the things central planning couldn't produce effectively - from grain to advanced technology - and support the many million strong Red army occupying Eastern Europe. And then oil prices plummeted (69% in just 8 months following 1985). USSR government deficit went from around 2% of GDP in 1985 to 20% in 1991. Anyways, all this to say that the discovery of massive oil fields in Siberia might have kept a floundering and obviously unworkable Communist system on life support for an extra 30 years. This way the USSR collapsed in 1991, and not 1961. 0:00:00 – Did Reagan single-handedly win the Cold War? 0:15:53 – Eastern Bloc uprisings & oil crisis 0:30:37 – Gorbachev's mistakes 0:37:33 – German unification and NATO expansion 0:48:31 – The Gulf War and the Cold War endgame 0:56:10 – How central planning survived so long 1:14:46 – Sarah's life in the USSR in 1988 Available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc. Enjoy!

Host of @dwarkeshpodcast https://t.co/3SXlu7fy6N https://t.co/4DPAxODFYi https://t.co/hQfIWdM1Un

Fri Dec 19 17:56:10

Lots of people messaged me about missing the deadline to apply.

So re-opening the application until the end of the weekend!

Link below.

Lots of people messaged me about missing the deadline to apply. So re-opening the application until the end of the weekend! Link below.

https://t.co/C86Xm8AE5n

Sat Dec 13 00:26:31

It makes you wonder how big the deductive overhang on any topic truly is.

With the right insight, someone can make a discovery that rightly belong centuries in the future.

It makes you wonder how big the deductive overhang on any topic truly is. With the right insight, someone can make a discovery that rightly belong centuries in the future.

Host of @dwarkeshpodcast https://t.co/3SXlu7fy6N https://t.co/4DPAxODFYi https://t.co/hQfIWdM1Un

Mon Dec 08 01:19:25

It makes you wonder how big the deductive overhang on any topic truly is.

With the right insight, someone can make a discovery that rightly belong centuries in the future.

It makes you wonder how big the deductive overhang on any topic truly is. With the right insight, someone can make a discovery that rightly belong centuries in the future.

Host of @dwarkeshpodcast https://t.co/3SXlu7fy6N https://t.co/4DPAxODFYi https://t.co/hQfIWdM1Un

Mon Dec 08 01:19:25

It's sad how much random hate Lex gets.

He's exposed millions of people (who don't have your Twitter feed) to ideas in science/tech which they'd never have encountered otherwise.

And there's 100s of hours of recorded insights from great minds that wouldn't exist without him.

It's sad how much random hate Lex gets. He's exposed millions of people (who don't have your Twitter feed) to ideas in science/tech which they'd never have encountered otherwise. And there's 100s of hours of recorded insights from great minds that wouldn't exist without him.

Host of @dwarkeshpodcast https://t.co/3SXlu7fy6N https://t.co/4DPAxODFYi https://t.co/hQfIWdM1Un

Sun Dec 07 19:58:02

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