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RT @eriktorenberg: Stoked to announce our investment in Unlimited. Alex and Tara and team are a force. Watch this space.

RT @eriktorenberg: Stoked to announce our investment in Unlimited. Alex and Tara and team are a force. Watch this space.

Co-Founder, American Dynamism. General Partner @a16z. Catholic. Mother. American. 🇺🇸 🚀💪

avatar for Katherine Boyle
Katherine Boyle
Wed Dec 03 18:00:53
RT @a16z: Large-scale infrastructure buildout is essential to the next decade of American Dynamism. Making it happen will require leaps in…

RT @a16z: Large-scale infrastructure buildout is essential to the next decade of American Dynamism. Making it happen will require leaps in…

Co-Founder, American Dynamism. General Partner @a16z. Catholic. Mother. American. 🇺🇸 🚀💪

avatar for Katherine Boyle
Katherine Boyle
Wed Dec 03 18:00:20
Gemini has this weird privacy policy. You either:

- only have temporary chats, or
- let your chat data be used for training and human review.

@OfficialLoganK, @demishassabis, @JeffDean:
If this policy changes to match ChatGPT, I bet you will see Gemini DAU & paid users rise.

Gemini has this weird privacy policy. You either: - only have temporary chats, or - let your chat data be used for training and human review. @OfficialLoganK, @demishassabis, @JeffDean: If this policy changes to match ChatGPT, I bet you will see Gemini DAU & paid users rise.

@OfficialLoganK @demishassabis @JeffDean This is the #1 reason my friends are unwilling to switch from ChatGPT Pro to Gemini. Also, please don’t add ads to Gemini, at least not before ChatGPT does.

avatar for Yuchen Jin
Yuchen Jin
Wed Dec 03 17:59:53
A Staircase of Sigmoids

I dug in on a reference after reading the Dwarkesh piece that had me quite worried. In the post he mentions:

"Toby Ord has a great post where he cleverly connects the dots between different o-series benchmark charts, which suggested “we need something like a 1,000,000x scale-up of total RL compute to give a boost similar to a GPT level”."

This makes it sound like things are going to stall.

Toby goes so far to say two things that had me worried:
1. "We’ve seen impressive gains, but these were only viable when starting from such a low base. We have reached the point where it is too expensive to go much further."
2. "Now that RL-training is nearing its effective limit, we may have lost the ability to effectively turn more compute into more intelligence."

I asked around how legitimate this claim was and what was the opposing bull case for scaling up RL.

A good friend said: "Yes, if you keep naively scaling RL compute, it’ll scale poorly. But we shouldn’t do that! That’s why there’s so many RL env companies. A better approach is to scale to newer, more difficult environments. "

After pondering things a bit, I found a way to compress this further to: "Imagining it as a staircase is sigmoids for new tasks, worlds, goals is the most helpful way to think about how it can keep going for a while."

A Staircase of Sigmoids I dug in on a reference after reading the Dwarkesh piece that had me quite worried. In the post he mentions: "Toby Ord has a great post where he cleverly connects the dots between different o-series benchmark charts, which suggested “we need something like a 1,000,000x scale-up of total RL compute to give a boost similar to a GPT level”." This makes it sound like things are going to stall. Toby goes so far to say two things that had me worried: 1. "We’ve seen impressive gains, but these were only viable when starting from such a low base. We have reached the point where it is too expensive to go much further." 2. "Now that RL-training is nearing its effective limit, we may have lost the ability to effectively turn more compute into more intelligence." I asked around how legitimate this claim was and what was the opposing bull case for scaling up RL. A good friend said: "Yes, if you keep naively scaling RL compute, it’ll scale poorly. But we shouldn’t do that! That’s why there’s so many RL env companies. A better approach is to scale to newer, more difficult environments. " After pondering things a bit, I found a way to compress this further to: "Imagining it as a staircase is sigmoids for new tasks, worlds, goals is the most helpful way to think about how it can keep going for a while."

Founder: @mixpanel Pizzatarian, programmer, music maker

avatar for Suhail
Suhail
Wed Dec 03 17:59:34
RT @zabie_e: In 1930 the Empire State Building was built in just 410 days. Today we’ve lost the muscle to build what matters with that kind…

RT @zabie_e: In 1930 the Empire State Building was built in just 410 days. Today we’ve lost the muscle to build what matters with that kind…

Co-Founder, American Dynamism. General Partner @a16z. Catholic. Mother. American. 🇺🇸 🚀💪

avatar for Katherine Boyle
Katherine Boyle
Wed Dec 03 17:59:33
RT @alexmodon: For most of my life, I assumed technology only moved in one direction: Faster, better, cheaper. 

Progress felt inevitable.…

RT @alexmodon: For most of my life, I assumed technology only moved in one direction: Faster, better, cheaper. Progress felt inevitable.…

Co-Founder, American Dynamism. General Partner @a16z. Catholic. Mother. American. 🇺🇸 🚀💪

avatar for Katherine Boyle
Katherine Boyle
Wed Dec 03 17:59:00
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